European Journal of International Security (2025)

Alexander Sorg , Wolfgang Wagner and Michal Onderco

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​Abstract

Scholars have found that citizens’ willingness to fight for their country has decreased globally since the 1980s. Some posit this as the underpinning of the ‘long peace’, contending that rising economic prosperity decreases the tolerance for sacrificing one’s life. For governments trying to recruit military personnel, this trend is viewed as detrimental to one’s country’s defence capability. However, we show that this diminishing willingness to fight has not only decelerated in the past decade but has even reversed in some countries. Contrary to the notion of a continuous decline, we maintain that alongside previously identified factors, proximate conflicts affect citizens’ willingness to fight. First, they challenge the view of international relations as cooperative, instead reinforcing a perception of global politics as inherently conflictual. Second, witnessing armed conflicts nearby heightens citizens’ sense of threat, leading them to take the possibility of aggression more seriously and to feel increasingly vulnerable to future conflict. Consequently, they show an increased willingness to fight. In our empirical analysis, we find strong support for the notion that proximate conflict increases citizens’ willingness to fight.